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  Probabilistic Subsurface Modelling in Tunnelling Applications: Suggestions for Use in Practice

  Tunnel projects are often dominated by spatial uncertainty in geological-geotechnical conditions. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the use of geostatistical or random field methods for probabilistic subsurface modelling in tunnelling applications. These methods provide the means for modelling the spatial variability and quantifying the spatial uncertainty in geologicalgeotechnical conditions. This in turn can help in characterizing geotechnical risk, though the extension from spatial uncertainty to tunnelling risk is only emerging. This paper presents some example use cases from several tunnelling projects globally to examine the applicability of such methods in tunnelling practice. These use cases include geological modelling, spatial risk assessment quantification and mitigation planning. Both the advantages and limitations from a modelling standpoint are discussed, as well as the implications on various aspects of tunnelling projects including tenders, baseline reports and mitigation planning. The specific ways in which tunnelling risk is better quantified is clearly documented.

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