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  Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks Applicable to Shield TBM Tunnels

  The tunnel boring machine (TBM) system, the most representative mechanized tunneling method, has been widely adopted in numerous tunneling projects. It is also quite environmentally friendly, exhibiting minimized noise and vibration when compared with conventional tunneling methods. Moreover, it provides considerable economic benefits that allow for high advance rate for long drives during construction. Shield TBM has been used widely in urban areas and underwater tunnel construction projects because it makes excavation work feasible even under constrained or less than optimal conditions. However, the TBM method has a limitation: namely its inability to deal with unexpected situations during construction, and the machine is not capable of moving backwards. This leads to delays or even stoppages, and a corresponding increase in construction costs due to the need to arrange for modified equipment or alternative solutions. Thus, when utilizing the TBM method, both potential risks and solutions must be assessed during both the design and construction stages. It is essential to retain systematic management in order to prevent and deal with unforeseen consequences during constructions.

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