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  Probabilistic Estimation of Operating Pressure for TBM Tunnelling

  The problems posed by urban development and the challenges of traffic, utilities etc. are often solved by digging tunnels. More and more tunnels are being excavated and there are a host of new technologies to assist in excavation. Most urban tunnels are now shield driven. This increases the importance of controlling the tunnel face pressure during its advance. In the case of shallow tunnels, this pressure influences significantly the surface settlements. This pressure must be kept above a certain threshold, or the face is unstable and there is risk of tunnel collapse. Though many metro projects have been completed, due to the complicated geological conditions tunnel face collapse still takes place occasionally in recent tunnelling project [1]. This calls for a better understanding of the problem and the uncertainties involved in it. Although a number of studies have been dedicated to tunnel face stability, only the collapse failure mode of the ultimate limit stated is studied. The deterministic model is either based on the upper bound or lower bound methods. The inherent uncertainty (spatial and in determination of properties) are not considered in the deterministic models. This paper presents the implementation of probabilistic analysis for computing probability of face collapse using analytical methods. This will allow to account for uncertainty and variability of geo-technical parameters considered for the analysis.

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