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  Probabilistic Assessment of Tunnel Face Stability

  It is widely recognised within engineering practice that tunnelling is a science surrounded by uncertainties that range from the geotechnical parameters and design assumptions to the interpretation of the right ground responses during excavation. In an attempt to accommodate these inherent uncertainties both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment procedures have been employed in different contexts and by the different parties with vested interests in tunnelling projects; namely owners, designers, contractors and insurance companies. In this context, methods based on simulation present advantages once they offer a straightforward way to derive more appropriate indicators of the safety of excavation such as the reliability index and the probability of collapse. In this paper the Monte Carlo Simulation Method is applied to make inferences related to tunnel face stability, based on the model proposed by Mühlhaus (1985) modified by Sozio (2004).

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