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  Uncertainty Assessment of Fault Zones in 3D Geologic Models of Mountain Tunnels

  3D geologic models are applied to predict the location and geometry of fault zones intersecting tunnel alignments in hard rock settings. The modelled fault zones inherit subjective (i.e., epistemic) and objective (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty from the various modelling inputs used, including observations and interpretations. An input-based, uncertainty propagation approach is developed to assess the geologic model uncertainty based on four modelling inputs – surface trace, structural orientation, fault zone thickness and vertical termination depth. The rationale behind selecting and parameterizing probability distributions to characterize the uncertainty of each modelling input based on available data and geologic prior knowledge is discussed. The approach – implemented using open-source code and commercial geologic modelling software – can be applied to a wide range of 3D geologic models in structurally-controlled hard rock settings for a realistic assessment and visualization of uncertainty.

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