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  On failure probability in thin irregular shotcrete shells

  Tunnels through hard jointed rock are commonly reinforced with a combination of fibre reinforced shotcrete (sprayed concrete), FRS, and rock bolts. The design of such reinforcement is a complex task. First, the interaction between rock bolts, FRS and rock should be considered. Secondly, a natural variation in important parameters such as thickness of the shotcrete, fracture energy, and bond strength between shotcrete and rock exists. In this paper, a numerical framework for non-linear analyses of FRS suitable for Monte Carlo simulations is presented. As a case study, a 2D FE-model of a bolted shotcrete lining subjected to load from a pushing block was used to perform a sensitivity analysis for the variation in thickness.

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