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List of products by author: J. Reilly
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Quantitative Risk Analysis – Fallacy of the Single Number
Abstract: Risk analysis is a proven method to identify, characterize, and address potential risks and to allow development of risk management plans to reduce impacts to projects. In this way, limited resources can be best used and value added. In this paper we will illustrate the application of risk analysis with respect to one key element – the cost of these projects. Cost is critical to owners in terms...
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Risk mode lling techniques for complex tunnelling projects
Abstract: Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements far-reaching enough in a complex environment...
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Risk-Based Integrated Cost and Schedule Analysis for Major Infrastructure Projects
Abstract: Effective cost and risk management is essential for the success of large infrastructure projects as demonstrated by a long history of cost overruns. In order to achieve cost transparency and to adequately consider cost and schedule uncertainties (risks), base cost validation and probabilistic methods need to be used for a full risk assessment. Probabilistic methods include identification and...
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Risk-Based, Probabilistic Cost Estimating Methods
Abstract: Every cost estimate is uncertain. Underestimating construction costs, by owners in the planning or design phases or by contractors in the bidding phase, and with respect to low probability/high impact “black swan” events, can lead to disputes, claims, and litigation. A better understanding of potential costs can help owners budget and get authorization for projects with a reduced chance of cost...
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Shatin Central Link – First Variable Density Tunnel Boring Machine in Hong Kong for a Shallow Tunnel Drive
Abstract: The Shatin Central link (SCL) is one of the railway projects set out in the Railway Development Strategy (RDS 2000) by the HKSAR Government and is a new rail corridor providing a direct link between the New Territories and Hong Kong Island. SCL Contract 1128 involves the construction of two sections of twin tunnels between Causeway Bay Typhoon Shelter and Admiralty MTR Station, boring...
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