List of products by author: A. Moergeli

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  Quantitative Risk Analysis – Fallacy of the Single Number

  Abstract: Risk analysis is a proven method to identify, characterize, and address potential risks and to allow development of risk management plans to reduce impacts to projects. In this way, limited resources can be best used and value added. In this paper we will illustrate the application of risk analysis with respect to one key element – the cost of these projects. Cost is critical to owners in terms...

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  Risk-Based, Probabilistic Cost Estimating Methods

  Abstract: Every cost estimate is uncertain. Underestimating construction costs, by owners in the planning or design phases or by contractors in the bidding phase, and with respect to low probability/high impact “black swan” events, can lead to disputes, claims, and litigation. A better understanding of potential costs can help owners budget and get authorization for projects with a reduced chance of cost...

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